GTA Home Sales Take a Surprising Dip in December 2024 – What’s Next for 2025?
As we step into 2025, the GTA housing market is showing signs of change, with December 2024 closing on a quieter note. Home sales dipped 1.8% compared to the same time last year, while the average selling price fell 1.6%. This shift signals a more balanced market, giving buyers more power than in previous years. But with major economic shifts and potential interest rate cuts on the horizon, what does this mean for homeowners, buyers, and investors in 2025?
2024 Recap: A Year of Transition
Last year, home sales totaled 67,610, reflecting a 2.6% increase from 2023. However, the real game-changer was the 16% surge in new listings, giving buyers more options and reducing the intense competition that characterized past years. This influx of inventory helped keep prices relatively stable, with the average home price settling at $1,117,600, only slightly lower than 2023.
One of the biggest hurdles in 2024 was high borrowing costs. Interest rates remained a major barrier, keeping many first-time buyers on the sidelines. However, the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts in the latter half of the year provided some relief, and experts anticipate further reductions in 2025, which could bring more buyers back into the market.
Home Prices: Are We at the Bottom?
Despite the price dip in December, GTA home prices remain above pre-pandemic levels. In fact, current prices are similar to mid-2021 levels—right before the market skyrocketed. While some believe prices could drop further, many experts suggest we’ve already hit the bottom, meaning prices may begin to climb again—especially in the freehold market.
Market Trends by Property Type
- Detached & Semi-Detached Homes: These property types held their value well, with many move-up buyers taking advantage of market conditions to upgrade.
- Condos & Condo Townhouses: Condo sales declined, and prices took a bigger hit due to an oversupply in the market. Many first-time buyers are still waiting for lower rates before jumping in, which means condo buyers have more negotiation power right now.
What to Expect in 2025
With potential interest rate cuts, a strong supply of inventory, and buyer confidence slowly rebuilding, the GTA market is set for a slow but steady recovery. However, the market will likely be driven by move-up buyers rather than first-time buyers or investors.
For buyers, this could be the best time to enter the market before competition heats up.
For sellers, pricing competitively will be key to attracting the right buyers in this shifting landscape.
If you're thinking about making a move this year, now is the time to stay informed and plan ahead. Want to know how these changes impact your real estate goals? Let’s connect!