October 2024 GTA Real Estate Market Update: Home Sales Surge 44% as Demand Rises!

After a long period of market uncertainty, there's finally some good news for homeowners and buyers in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The October 2024 TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board) numbers are in, and home sales have surged by an impressive 44% compared to the same time last year, and 14% from September. In Mississauga, home sales jumped 38% year-over-year and 27% month-over-month. With 577 sales in October, it’s the highest volume since the spring market earlier this year. Here’s an in-depth look at the latest numbers, what’s driving the market shift, and what you can expect in the coming months.
 

1. Home Sales Uptick: What’s Driving the Surge?

October brought a much-needed boost to the GTA real estate market. This uptick is largely attributed to renewed consumer confidence following the Bank of Canada's 0.50% rate cut, which came after four rounds of cuts this year. The 3.75% overnight rate makes it easier for homebuyers to qualify for mortgages, with fixed mortgage rates now around 4.3%, and variable rates dropping below 6% for the first time in over a year.

As buyers begin to feel more confident with these lower interest rates, many are making their move off the sidelines, especially those who have been waiting for more favorable conditions. For those existing homeowners looking for a new property, now seems like a good time to act, with more inventory available and fewer buyers to compete with.

2. Market Conditions: More Time, More Choice, Fewer Competitors

One of the key advantages of today’s market is the balance it offers. With more listings available, buyers now have more choice, and they’re facing less competition compared to the previous months. Additionally, the market conditions are favorable for negotiating deals. Many buyers are able to secure homes below asking prices, thanks to price negotiations and adjustments based on recent sold comparables.

In addition, the current market allows more time for buyers to do their due diligence before making a firm decision. Including conditions such as finance and home inspections in offers gives buyers the time they need to ensure everything is in order, leading to a more comfortable and confident buying process.

3. Price Stability: The GTA's Average Selling Price

While the average selling price in the GTA has increased by just 1% compared to last year, sitting at $1,135,215, this still offers hope for homeowners. A small increase is better than a decrease, especially given the market downturn over the past year. Interestingly, this price point is very close to the prices seen in the spring and summer of 2023, which suggests that prices have stabilized for the last two and a half years since the market peak in June 2022.

For buyers, this means that while prices aren’t skyrocketing, they’re also not dropping drastically, giving potential homebuyers the opportunity to enter a stable market.

4. Longer Time on Market: Condo Market Challenges

While many properties are moving quickly, the average days on market (DOM) for homes in Mississauga has increased to 28 days, up from 21 days last year. Condos are taking the longest to sell, with an average DOM of 35 days. Condo prices are also seeing a decrease of 6% compared to the same time last year, reflecting the oversupply of condos in the market.

In Mississauga, there are currently five months of condo inventory, which means that the condo market may take longer to recover. If you're looking at condos, be prepared for a slower process, as new condo completions and assignment sales are contributing to this extended market time.

5. Supply and Demand: Sales-to-Listings Ratio Shows Promise

Despite the increase in new listings by 4.3% from last year, the sales-to-new-listings ratio has risen by 12%, from 31% to 43%. This indicates that more homes are being sold, even though more listings are entering the market. The balance of supply and demand is key to preventing a rapid price increase. As long as the supply remains healthy and buyer demand continues to grow steadily, the GTA market should remain relatively stable in the near future.

6. Looking Ahead: The Spring Market & Interest Rate Changes

As we approach 2025, there are some important shifts to watch. With more interest rate cuts expected in the coming months and new mortgage rules taking effect in December, the market could shift again, especially as first-time homebuyers take advantage of lower interest rates and extended amortization periods.

For sellers, the spring market (March to May) is typically the best time to list, and this trend is expected to continue in 2025. If you're planning to sell next year, now is the time to prepare. The spring market has historically been strong, and it’s expected to drive up both the volume of sales and possibly home prices.

October 2024 has been a positive month for the GTA real estate market, and if the Bank of Canada continues to cut rates and new mortgage rules come into play, we could see even more activity in the market. Sellers are preparing for a strong spring market, and buyers are finally finding more affordable opportunities. It’s a balanced market right now, with opportunities for both buyers and sellers. As always, it’s important to stay informed and ready to act when the time is right.

Stay tuned for more market updates and trends as we approach 2025. If you have any questions about buying or selling in the current market, feel free to reach out—I’m happy to help guide you through your real estate journey!